14 Feb Presidential Primary Fun?
As expected, Ambassador Nikki Haley officially launched her 2024 presidential campaign yesterday, becoming the first candidate not named Donald Trump in the Republican primary contest. As we noted just a couple of weeks ago, Haley is an impressive person and a talented politician but is almost certainly NOT going to be the next President of the United States. Not only has she likely permanently alienated the Trump-supporting factions of her party, but she also has trouble reading a room and understanding the sentiments motivating her fellow partisans. Haley will provide a nice, normal, stable contrast to Trump on the campaign trail and the debate stage, but we remain doubtful that she will generate much enthusiasm among voters. Like a long list of nice, normal, stable contrasts to Donald Trump before her, she will find it difficult to offer much to compete with his … uhh … “unorthodoxy.”
That’s not to say, however, that yesterday’s presidential news was entirely unexciting.
For reference, we don’t usually care too much about who is or isn’t running for president, mostly because we tend to find most politicians indistinguishable from one another on the stuff that matters most to us. That’s not to say that “they’re all the same,” but in terms of personality, understanding of the fundamental issues at the core of our societal pathologies, and the need for fresh, somewhat apolitical thinking, they’re almost all pretty similar.
In the press pieces about her announcement and even in the launch video her campaign released, much is made about the fact that Nikki Haley is Indian-American, the daughter of two immigrants to the United States. Much is also made of the fact that she was the first female governor of South Carolina, and the first racial minority governor of the state.
And while we admire Haley’s bravery – namely her refusal to be cowed by those who insist that racial minorities MUST be indentitarians and, by extension, Democrats – we think it’s interesting that she will, most likely, be neither the most intriguing candidate from South Carolina in the race nor the most exciting candidate of Indian-American descent.
Two weeks ago, in our piece about Haley’s pre-announcement, we noted that one of the things we like best about her is that “She appointed one of our favorite politicians in the country, Tim Scott, to the Senate to fill the remainder of Jim DeMint’s term.” Yesterday, even as Haley was announcing the formal launch of her campaign, The Wall Street Journal was noting the following:
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is taking steps to run for president, people familiar with his plans said, adding to the stable of Republicans looking to wrest the party mantle from former President Donald Trump.
Mr. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, is testing a message with GOP voters in key early states focused on unity and optimism as some Republicans say it is time to move on from the Trump era. Mr. Trump has announced a bid for president in the 2024 election.
Jennifer DeCasper, a Scott senior adviser, said he was “excited to share his vision of hope and opportunity and hear the American people’s response.”
While his voting record regularly ranks among the most conservative in the Senate, Mr. Scott has sought to position himself as a key GOP voice on some of the toughest issues facing America, whether it is police violence or creating more economic opportunities for minorities. Still, he is a relatively unknown quantity with average voters and in addition to competing with Mr. Trump will be challenged by several other candidates also seeking to take over the next generation of leadership.
Again, we don’t generally get excited about politicians, but the things we like about Scott are all mostly contained in the above four paragraphs. First, “his voting record regularly ranks among the most conservative in the Senate.” Second, “Mr. Scott has sought to position himself as a key GOP voice on some of the toughest issues facing America.” Third, “Mr. Scott [is] the only Black Republican in the Senate.” And fourth, he is “‘excited to share his vision of hope and opportunity….’”
As we noted regarding Haley, it takes some serious cojones to stand up to the Left and to the media and be a proud, unwavering minority conservative. It takes some serious cojones to stand up to the ruling-class more broadly and say “Hey! This country is great, and I’m proof of its greatness” even while conceding that the country is not perfect and still has issues to fix. Finally, it takes some serious cojones to stand up to the Washington policy establishment and say, “The way you guys do things, the way you’ve done things for 60-plus years is garbage. We need to rethink the entire way in which we deliver government aid and services to the most vulnerable.”
Tim Scott has done and continues to do all of the above. He’s not perfect, obviously, but he’s smart, and he’s gutsy, and he’s tough. That’s a potent combination for a politician, especially in this day and age.
Now, if Senator Scott also happened to be irresistibly charismatic, then he might be unbeatable. But then, if he were smart, gutsy, tough, and irresistibly charismatic, he might also be Vivek Ramaswamy, whom you all currently know as the author of Woke, Inc. and the co-founder of the post-ESG financial firm Strive Asset Management. According to yesterday’s news, however, you may soon know him as “Candidate Ramaswamy”:
At 37 years old, Vivek Ramaswamy has made hundreds of millions of dollars, written a New York Times bestseller and become a fixture on Tucker Carlson’s show. Recently, he was dubbed by the New Yorker as the “CEO of Anti-Woke Inc.”
But on a chilly Monday evening last month, Ramaswamy found himself in a place far from the Fox News green rooms and high-powered corporate board rooms he’s used to. He was at a dinner event in Iowa, addressing a crowd of dozens of the state’s agricultural royalty tucked inside a huge upscale barn with exposed wood beams and the heads of elk and bison mounted on the walls….
Standing at a rough wooden podium with the words “Stine corn” carved into the front, next to a still-up Christmas tree and an enormous stone fireplace, he spoke without any notes and hit on his favorite themes about how woke capitalism is destroying the country.
“We were taught that you satisfy a moral hunger by going to Ben and Jerry’s and ordering a cup of ice cream with some social justice sprinkles on top,” he told the crowd, a line he repeated multiple times during his trip to Iowa. “But we’ve learned in the last couple of years that you cannot satisfy that moral hunger with fast food. And the good news is I think we’re getting hungry again. And I think there’s an opportunity to fill that hunger with something deeper.”
Ramaswamy was there to do what people with ambition, a thirst for the spotlight and an overflowing sense of self-confidence occasionally go to Iowa to do. He is exploring a run for president, testing, among other things, whether his warnings about the dangers of “wokeism” and socially-responsible investing — in business vernacular what’s called environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing — have political currency with Republican politicians, business leaders and, yes, farmers.
Not to belabor the point, but again, we don’t generally make a big deal about presidential candidates. Of course, we don’t generally know the candidates, much less share with them a considerable portion of our weltanschauung.
Politico continues, noting that:
Ramaswamy has a theory for how this will all go. He wants to pull off what Donald Trump did in 2016: enter the race with an entrepreneurial spirit, unorthodox ideas, and few expectations, and end up developing a major following that will carry him to the presidency — even if it seems like a long shot at the moment.
To us – obviously – the most intriguing part of this is the bit about Vivek’s “unorthodox ideas.” We have unorthodox ideas too.
In any case, as analysts for the financial markets, we’ve always insisted that our professional responsibility is not to advocate for any particular policies, politicians, or parties, but instead, to offer forecasts. As the operators of a sponsored program of a 501(c)3 organization, the government insists that our legal responsibility is not to advocate for any particular policies, politicians, or parties. So…in the interest of meeting our various responsibilities, we’ll move on.
If both Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy do, in fact, join the Republican presidential contest, the political world will change in several serious ways. First, Donald Trump’s strategy for beating “the field” will face a serious test. It is one thing to isolate a candidate or two who present a challenge, make them look feeble, and then wow the crowd with your “unorthodox” ideas. That becomes much more difficult if at least three of the other candidates (Ramaswamy, Scott, and DeSantis) are prepared for the attacks and embrace genuinely unorthodox ideas of their own.
Second, the racial angle of American politics will continue to evolve. Already, the Democrats’ strategy of relying on Hispanic voters to make them the permanent majority party has failed. With Scott, Ramaswamy, and Haley in the race, the Left/media’s minority narrative will take another hit. Traditionally, the Left and the media have described racial minority conservatives as “tokens.” That strategy doesn’t work as well when 60% of the announced (or presumed) candidates are racial minorities. Republicans can for the first time in at least a generation, make the case that their policies are the real policies of opportunity and fairness for ALL Americans.
Finally, politics may become fun again. Ramaswamy is, inarguably, the best extemporaneous speaker we’ve ever seen. Scott and Haley are both engaging. DeSantis is bold. And Trump is…well…Trump. We might actually watch a Republican debate or two this time around. Moreover, we might actually enjoy ourselves.
This…this…could get very interesting very quickly.
