16 Aug Ignoramuses and Planners
As we first noted almost exactly a quarter century ago, and as we used to remind you every January (in our Foreign Policy forecast piece), it is our official position that the European Union and its common currency are economic disasters:
Psst! You wanna know a secret? The Euro, and the mess it represents, is going to be a social, economic and political catastrophe. Indeed, we think it is probable that the adoption of the Euro will be to 21st century Europe, what the killing of the Archduke Ferdinand was to 20th century Europe; i.e., that point in time when history will record that the unraveling began in earnest.
Exaggeration? Hyperbole? Well, maybe. But maybe not. You see, the problem isn’t, as most critics claim, simply that the “policy makers” from the various “regions,” will fight over economic and monetary policy, and that the economic ignoramuses might win. The problem is that economic ignoramuses are likely to be the only ones at the table….
The near-term consequences of this action will be that a small group of “planners” will take over virtually all responsibility for the economic affairs of the combined nations. And when the dust settles, individual Europeans will be left to wonder what happened to all the grand promises of “great prosperity,” and what happened to the demos in their democracies.
We’ve been thinking a great deal about this prediction lately, for a variety of reasons. For starters, we could not have been more spot on if we’d tried. In recent years, we tried to tie this prediction to a full-blown collapse of the EU. That was unnecessary. While we still believe that said collapse will happen – someday – it isn’t necessary for us to be proven right. That’s already happened. The ignoramuses are, indeed, the only ones at the table. A small group of planners has, indeed, taken over virtually all responsibility for the EU’s economic affairs. Both democracy and Democracy™ are, indeed, waning on the continent. And prosperity is, indeed, on the retreat. The unraveling is well underway.
Name an American tech company – any American tech company. Chances are pretty good that the EU is currently investigating it under its new Digital Markets Act. And no, we’re not joking. Apple, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon, etc. are all under investigation for various violations of the Act and for offering solutions to fabricated problems that might not meet the EU’s arbitrary and capricious standards. Everyone, it seems, is guilty of something, which is exactly the way the EU wants it.
And note: the above doesn’t even include the latest European temper tantrum about Elon Musk, Twitter/X, and questions of free speech:
The European Union’s top digital enforcer tried to take on Elon Musk. Within hours, he faced accusations of meddling in American politics and his own staff were back-pedaling hard.
Thierry Breton, who oversees the bloc’s enforcement of new social media rules, sent Musk a letter posted on X that warned the tech mogul about spreading “harmful content,” ahead of Musk’s livestreamed interview with Donald Trump….
It’s Europe’s latest quarrel with Musk, who last week clashed with British politicians who accused him of inciting real-world violence during far-right riots….
The bloc believes it is leading the charge among global democracies to regain control over tech giants. Over the last five years, Breton, a outspoken French politician, has muscled his way into being the face of Europe’s digital regulatory push that, alongside the social media rules, includes efforts to oversee artificial intelligence and boost digital competition.
That opening line in the last paragraph above is comedy gold: “The bloc believes it is leading the charge”… Ahh. What’s that they say in the South? “Bless their hearts?”
Meanwhile, Germany is busy blowing up its formerly world-class nuclear reactors, the continent has seen stagnant economic growth for more than a year, migrant masses are creating “difficulties’ in France and elsewhere, the EU continues to send Putin’s Russia over $1 billion for natural gas because it can’t be bothered to figure out other energy plans, and the entire continent is getting poorer:
Europeans are facing a new economic reality, one they haven’t experienced in decades. They are becoming poorer.
Life on a continent long envied by outsiders for its art de vivre is rapidly losing its shine as Europeans see their purchasing power melt away.
The French are eating less foie gras and drinking less red wine. Spaniards are stinting on olive oil. Finns are being urged to use saunas on windy days when energy is less expensive. Across Germany, meat and milk consumption has fallen to the lowest level in three decades and the once-booming market for organic food has tanked. Italy’s economic development minister, Adolfo Urso, convened a crisis meeting in May over prices for pasta, the country’s favorite staple, after they jumped by more than double the national inflation rate.
With consumption spending in free fall, Europe tipped into recession at the start of the year, reinforcing a sense of relative economic, political and military decline that kicked in at the start of the century….
Adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, wages have declined by about 3% since 2019 in Germany, by 3.5% in Italy and Spain and by 6% in Greece. Real wages in the U.S. have increased by about 6% over the same period, according to OECD data.
That last bit’s the real kicker, isn’t it? As Americans contemplate their own economic troubles – which are real and significant – they are, nonetheless, infinitely better off than their European counterparts, who are, more or less, getting their teeth kicked in.
It’s unlikely that the ignoramuses and planners will connect the dots between fantastical energy policies, restrictions on speech, heavy-handed regulation of the tech industry, lack of immigration controls, and high taxes (among other things) on the one hand and real, profound economic decline on the other. They’re ignoramuses, after all.
Fortunately, we’re here to bring it all together for them and show them the not-so-pretty picture. Unfortunately, there is zero chance they’ll pay any attention to us. They’ve had 25 years already, and they haven’t paid attention yet.
Maybe we shouldn’t have kept it a secret?
